On April 1, this happened:

1. Matt Wieters, C
2. Bill Rowell, 3B
3. Radhames Liz, RHP
4. Nolan Reimold, OF
5. Jake Arrieta, RHP
6. Chris Tillman, RHP
7. Garrett Olson, LHP
8. Chorye Spoone, RHP
9. Tony Butler, LHP
10. Hayden Penn, RHP
11. Tim Bascom, RHP
12. Troy Patton, LHP
13. Brandon Snyder, 1B
14. Brandon Erbe, RHP
15. David Hernandez, RHP
16. Pedro Beato, RHP
17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B
18. Matt Albers, RHP
19. Randor Bierd, RHP
20. Bob McCrory, RHP

It is now October 8. This will happen. Instead of going over these guys in that order and how their seasons went, I'm going to re-shuffle at the same time. And there's plenty of movement.

1. Matt Wieters, C (1)

This will no doubt sound very "after the fact," but I was very big on Nick Markakis. While looking at his stat lines, I thought, "Here's a guy that puts up real numbers. Here's a guy that can play." We had been treated to lots of flop prospects that never put up numbers, but we were told yearly about their "potential" and their "ceiling." No one really talked about Markakis' "ceiling" -- he actually played well instead.

Matt Wieters makes Nick Markakis (at similar stages) look like Keith Reed. The former Yellow Jacket entered his first season of professional baseball as maybe the most hyped player coming out of the 2007 draft, partially due to the fact that I think WE were all so excited to have a player of his caliber that we decided to make him out to be Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane, Johnny Bench and prime years Pudge Rodriguez all rolled into one.

In 229 ABs at Frederick, he hit .345/.448/.576 with 15 home runs. In 208 at-bats with Bowie, he topped that, hitting .365/.460/.625 with 12 dongs.

If Wieters starts off the year in Bowie or Norfolk in 2009, go see him if you have the chance, because you won't have many to see this superstar-in-the-making play in the sticks. He's coming. He's on his way. Frankly, there's no reason other than contract jive that he isn't the starting catcher for the Baltimore Orioles.

If they want to excite the fans about the future and get the skeptics to buy into the rebuilding (which they've heard before and was bungled so badly that I don't blame them), they need to have Wieters on the club. Simple as that. He's a player.

2. Chris Tillman, RHP (6)

Start the hype machine. This is our best pitching prospect. Thanks, Mariners!

Tillman turns 21...next April. That means that this guy just put on some damn good numbers in Double-A ball, and he can't even legally buy a drink until next April. In 135 innings, Tillman held opposing batters to a .227 average, went 11-4, and struck out 154. The Anaheim native was an Eastern League All-Star, and also represents something different from our pitching prospects, something that Wieters does, too: results. Actual, tangible results. Numbers you can point to as a reason to believe he'll be very good. He's probably not destined to be an ace, but a 2 or a 3? Absolutely. And as much as I try to stay away from blind optimism, given his age, I see no reason he can't become an ace. He's 20!

And because he's so young and good but no phenom, there's no reason to rush him up the chain. He'll be ready when he's ready.

3. Jake Arrieta, RHP (5)

Former Horned Frog Arrieta pitched 113 innings at Frederick, and went just 6-5.

Buuuut...in doing so, he posted a 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .199 BAA, and was named to the Carolina League All-Star game, the Carolina League post-season All-Star team, and oh yeah, was named the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year. He also played in the Futures Game.

The league couldn't touch him, but did draw some walks. I loved the Arrieta draft choice when we made it, and it looks even better now. Here's another guy that can solidify a staff in the future, and is showing that ability to do so with RESULTS. I know I keep harping on that, but I don't feel the need to explain Arrieta's ceiling. You can actually see that he's good. It's not just smoke-blowing.

He DID tire late in the season, and finished 1-5 in his last 10 starts with a 4.39 ERA, but conditioning is something you learn, like throwing a good slider or hitting one. Unlike beanpole Tillman (6-5, 195), Arrieta already has the body that a scout would like (6-4, 225).

4. Brian Matusz, LHP (-)

Matusz very well might be so good that he could jump up to No. 2 on this list by the middle of 2009. He is currently in the Arizona Fall League, playing with the Surprirse Rafters, but has yet to pitch as best I can tell.

The San Diego University standout was taken fourth overall by the Orioles, and they paid a pretty penny to get him signed. But when you look at his final college season, you know why: 12-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.09 K/9, 1.89 BB/9, and just four home runs allowed in 105 innings pitched.

He dominated college ball, and that means he has college shine on his left arm, much like Jake Arrieta has on his right arm. College players are generally better than high school players. That is a scientific fact. The Orioles ponying up the dough to sign Matusz and Wieters in back-to-back years is a GREAT sign from our front office. For years we were throwing money at the wall with guys like Adam Loewen, which turned out bad in every possible respect. Not only did Loewen stink, but he was hurt all the time, we gave him a terrible contract that rushed him into Major League duty, and now he's not even a pitcher anymore.

Put it this way: if Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta were all to pan out (not likely, but not unprecedented), then that's 3/5 of a rotation made out of real arms, not the junk we've been accepting as top prospect pitchers. These guys lay waste to what we've been fed for years.

5. Nolan Reimold, OF (4)

Reimold started very slow, but wound up on the Eastern League post-season All-Stars, hitting .284/.367/.501 with 25 homers and 84 RBI. He finally stayed healthy enough to play 139 games, too, which is a great thing. Right now, he's playing for the Surprise Rafters in the Arizona Fall League.

Reimold is a guy that has earned the chance to compete for a job next spring. Luke Scott is not getting any younger and isn't exactly great shakes to begin with, plus Millar should be gone, which would open up first base or DH. Huff could step in at first and Luke could do the majority of the DHing, with Reimold out in left, giving us a legit young outfield of Markakis, Jones and Reimold. Not bad.

I have no doubt that Reimold could hit in the Majors, at least putting up numbers similar to what Luke did this season. The only thing I still worry about is his ability to stay healthy.

6. Radhames Liz, RHP (3)

Two reasons Radhames Liz stays this high. First, it was his first taste of Major League Baseball, and sometimes guys get shelled. He went out there and did the best he could do. Command is the obvious issue. He has the stuff. I think he's more likely to find MLB success out of the bullpen, but that's not a bad place to be. A player's a player.

Second, the system takes a significant hit after the top five. A lot of guys bit the dust this year due to injury or plain old sucktitude, and Liz's ceiling (ooh!) remains higher than just about all of them.

7. Brandon Erbe, RHP (14)

In 2006, Baseball America ranked Brandon Erbe ninth in the O's system. In 2007, they had him up to No. 2, and 78th in baseball. In 2008, he was down to tenth following a disastrous season at Frederick (6.26 ERA, 119.1 IP).

He came back strong, and he's still only 21 in December (Erbe, in fact, is one of the unlucky few born on Christmas).

Erbe improved across the board in another go-'round with the Keys this year. His strikeouts were up (8.37 to 9.02 per nine), his walks down (4.68 to 2.99), hits allowed down (9.58 to 7.17), and his ERA dipped to 4.30 with a 1.13 WHIP, which was down .45 points. His ERA was only that high, actually, because he struggled with gopher balls: he allowed 21 in 150 innings.

Hope is rekindled...

8. David Hernandez, RHP (15)

Hernandez's first season in Bowie was a fine success, as he went 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA. The only concern is that he's still pretty much a fastball/slider guy, and his command is quite shaky, with 71 walks in 141 innings. On the plus side, he struck out 166, and was tough to hit (112 hits allowed). Might end up a bullpen guy, but could be a really good one, too.

9. Tony Butler, LHP (9)

Butler went on the Delmarva DL for good in June, after putting up a 4.42 ERA in 55 innings. What is very nice to see is a tremendously low walk rate, at 1.80 BB/9. His strikeout totals weren't amazing (7.20/9), but the control is the key. He's still a nice prospect as he doesn't turn 21 until November, but guys getting hurt this young is always a maroon flag if not one that is blood red.

10. Billy Rowell, 3B (2)

Before we get into why Billy Rowell slips a full eight spots and why you should probably burn your hopes and dreams, let's sum up his season with honesty very quickly.

Summary, Billy Rowell, 2008: Rowell got hurt early on and stayed out longer than expected, wound up playing just 111 games, and when he wasn't hurt, he sucked. Rowell hit .248/.315/.348 with seven home runs, not exactly befitting the ninth pick of the 2006 draft, and the man that was supposed to be our future at third or first base.

Outside of 42 games with Bluefield in 2006, Rowell hasn't hit for any power, racking up just 16 home runs the last two seasons, neither of which he played as much as you'd like (91 games in 2007, 111 this year). He was way below expectations at Delmarva, and way below expectations again this season with Frederick.

I keep him this high, honestly, only out of Amber-style blind faith. I want Rowell to turn it around in 2009 and get fast-tracked to the majors. One reason is that Melvin Mora can't stand over there forever, and we can't be relying on Melvin's second half sonic boom to carry over as he inches toward 40.

It all begs the question: is Rowell working hard or hardly working?! A-ha-ha-ha! Classic.

11. Troy Patton, LHP (12)

With the great bright spots at the top, Rowell's freefall and Patton moving up a spot despite not pitching really should explain the type of season the Orioles system had outside of a decent-looking draft. Troy Patton did not throw a single pitch as he was out with a labrum injury, and who knows if he'll return any good or not? But I have more faith that Troy Patton will contribute to the Major League team in a positive way than I do anyone below him.

Put that in your pipe and give it a think. Like I said, improvements in recent years or not, this system takes a nosedive after the top five.

12. Garrett Olson, LHP (7)

Not only did Garrett Olson stink up the joint something awful (9-10, 6.65/1.73, 62 BB in 132 IP) filling in for Adam Loewen this season, but he rubbed a lot of folks the wrong way, too, seeming to be totally indifferent to his struggles. Asked if his bad season got to him, Olson said, "Not really," or whatever.

Maybe that's a good thing, though. Maybe he figures you take your lumps and you figure out how to fix it. Maybe he spends the entire off-season working on fixing it. Maybe he spends it in Aruba punching judges and we can really start to hate him.

I'm not in Garrett Olson's mind. I don't know what he's thinking. I do know his stock took a serious hit this year, because struggling is one thing, but he got his ass kicked.

13. Brandon Snyder, 1B (13)

2005 first-round pick Brandon Snyder remains a personal favorite of mine. John Sickels regarded Snyder, then a catcher, as the best high school hitter in that draft, so I was thrilled that the Orioles signed him. Imagine if Snyder, Rowell, Wieters and Matusz had all panned out as expected. Woof! Then again, that's why I think talking about securing draft position in a losing year is pointless. You get more Snyders and Rowells, guys facing uphill battles very quickly, than you do guys like Wieters that come in and kill everything thrown at them.

Snyder had a solid year for Frederick, hitting .315/.358/.490 with 13 homers and 80 RBI (435 AB), but his power is going to have to improve for him to be a serious idea for first base. That or he needs to figure out how to have the plate discipline of Mark Grace, which is not looking likely with his 83-to-29 K-to-BB totals.

14. Bradley Bergesen, RHP (-)

Sickels had Bergesen ranked 17th in January. He just missed my cut in April. He had a really nice year at Bowie, going 15-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, and he walked next to no one in 148 innings, just 1.64 per nine. The catch? He only struck out 4.38 per nine. Not good, but results should speak, I think, and he made things happen this year.

15. Chorye Spoone, RHP (8)

The Prospect Lord giveth (mass improvements all around in 2007), and He taketh away (mass collapse and only nine starts in 2008). Spoone was back to posting the junk numbers he did in 2005-06 before going down for the year, which is a double negative. His 2007 might be a career year.

16. Xavier Avery, OF (-)

A two-sport superstar in Georgia high school athletics, Avery was a four-star running back with a verbal commitment to the University of Georgia. Instead, he opted to sign with the Orioles, who took him in the second round of this year's draft.

Still just 18, Avery is very, very raw, as you'd probably expect, but he's a ceiling guy, and his ceiling is pretty good. He ran a 6.4 60-yard dash and has been clocked at 3.95 seconds from home plate to first base. He has what is called "plus-plus" speed, and his natural power is good, too. Obviously it'll take a while for these things to come into play, so don't look for him moving up through the system too quickly.

There's a good chance Avery will flat-out stink and it'll turn out he should've stuck with football. But for the Orioles to give a guy money when the University of Georgia is ready to have him come play football, that says there's something special that somebody sees. That often means zilch at the end of the day, but I hope he made the right choice. His arm as described as "suited for left field," which means his arm sucks. Ever see a running back throw? Not pretty.

17. Hayden Penn, RHP (10)

Penn stays here only because there aren't that many players to put on the list at this point, and because he'd probably do no worse, realistically, than Liz or Olson did this season. Of course, the Orioles thought enough of those guys to give them the shots, and Penn didn't see one inning of action in Baltimore this year.

Anyone still hanging on to 2004-05 when Penn's name meant something, give it up. He's just another AAA pitcher with AAA upside (4.79/1.45 in 100 IP at Norfolk).

18. L.J. Hoes, 2B (-)

I like your name, young man! Hoes was signed to play ball at the University of North Carolina, and opted to sign with Baltimore instead. He's described in every article you can find on him as a hell of a nice guy, a hard worker, a team player, blah blah blah. He played his high school ball with highly-successful St. John's (Washington, D.C.), as an outfielder and starting pitcher. The Orioles see him as a second baseman. In brief time with the Gulf Coast Orioles this year, Hoes was was a walk mo-sheen, putting up a .416 OBP and going 10-for-10 in steal attempts. He hit .308 and slugged .390.

19. Jason Berken, RHP (-)

Again, it's just about results. 25-year old Berken went 12-4 (3.58/1.23) with Bowie this season. It's worth something, but he's not a real prospect.

20. Bob McCrory (20)

As always: has the stuff, needs to throw strikes. He was horrible in a brief stint with the Orioles this year. If he can learn some f-ing command, he could be a valuable f-ing addition to the f-ing bullpen. C'mon, Bob.

To the dearly departed...

First off was Tim Bascom (RHP, 11), a guy I liked a lot because of his story, but who really stunk up the joint in Frederick this season, with a 5.78 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 95 innings. Just after him was Pedro Beato (RHP, 16), a guy John Sickels had at #10 in January but that I simply didn't fully buy. Beato, 21, had a 5.85/1.57 line with 4.73 K/9 in 97 innings with the Keys, going 4-10. As Sickels put it in August, the two of them had a contest to see who could suck more. In the end, a pretty dead even race, and both are toast until something dramatic happens.

Scott Moore (IF, T-17) and Mike Costanzo (3B, T-17) both had awful years at Norfolk. Moore hit .247/.321/.408 with seven home runs, while Costanzo hit .261/.333/.395 with his usual massive amount of strikeouts, and just 11 home runs, a 16-homer drop from 2007 at AAA with the Phillies. Both are 24, and neither are really prospects, and really, neither ever really were. They were C-grade guys who look like they've probably hit the wall.

Matt Albers (RHP, 18) is off because he's hurt. I liked what we saw of him for the most part this year.

Randor Bierd (RHP, 19) just isn't anything special. His upside is less than that of McCrory, which was the tiebreaker. Both could be fine spare parts in the bullpen.

Note: Olson and Liz may not meet your guidelines for "prospect" at this point, given how much they pitched in Baltimore this year, but I think this should be a loose interpretation. Both guys were forced into their roles -- there was literally no one else available with Loewen out and Trachsel thankfully sent on down the river. There is hardly any guarantee that either man is with the Birds in 2009.

Other guys, notes, and statistical crapola...

If you're wondering where Oscar Salazar is, the answer is he's 30 years old.

Kam Mickolio is still a fun idea at 6-foot-9, but tall doesn't get me all aflutter the way it does some people. Years of Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen will do that to you. He struggled with Bowie and struggled in September with the O's. He's still very raw considering he's from Montana. (That's not a knock on Montana, it's just he never played much baseball.)

21-year old Delmarva second baseman and whiny, self-important singer/songwriter Ryan Adams hit .308/.367/.462 with 11 homers this season. Not a bad line. He also made 52 errors.

The rest of the O's 2008 draft class: OF Kyle Hudson (University of Illinois), SS Greg Miclat (University of Virginia), and LHP Rick Zagone (University of Missouri). Zagone tore the hell out of the New York-Penn league in 65 innings, going 7-1 with a .289 ERA and 10.88 strikeouts per nine against 1.93 walks per nine.

Ex-Ohio State Buckeye (puke) Matt Angle will have fans in every minor league city he plays, I bet. Born in Columbus (puke), Angle hit .287/.385/.379 for Delmarva. He was also 22 years old. He has zero power, and though he runs well (37-for-48 steal attempts), his Major League future probably rests in the role of National League guy that pinch-hits for the pitcher, tries to draw a walk, and then maybe makes something happen on the basepaths.

No, I will not rank Lou Montanez. He is 27 in December and remains a massive bust. He has had exactly one season of pro ball that has met or surpassed expectations. It was this one.

23-year old pitcher Mick Mattaliano threw 43 innings of relief for Delmarva, putting up a 1.24 ERA. He went to Norfolk for seven innings and got shelled. Whoops!

My personal favorite player in the world, Cole McCurry, stunk with Delmarva (6.51 ERA, 56 IP) but tore up Aberdeen (2.76 ERA, 81 IP).

Kennard hit just .257/.323/.350 in 140 AB.

(NSFW, y'all. Little bit o' cursin'.)

Hey, pitching staff? Can we ask you a question? Have you got a moment?

May Matt Wieters come to Baltimore and be our Dottie Hinson.

Carl Pavano improved to 2-0 against the O's this season and 4-1 overall, pitching five innings of solid ball before handing it over to the bullpen, a group that shut us down for the final four innings and gave the Yankees a 3-2 win in the Bronx.

The O's jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but Nick Markakis was thrown out at home in the first inning on an Aubrey Huff RBI single (scoring Roberts). The second run came on a Lou Montanez sac fly in the second, scoring Adam Jones.

The winning Yankee run came in the fifth, when Johnny Damon scored on a wild pitch. Radhames Liz actually did pretty well today, though, going 6 1/3, allowing three earned. Not a bad game at all. Could've been good enough to win. Wasn't.

Two more at Yankee Stadium, then a seven-game homestand to end it (TB, TBx2, TB, TOR, TOR, TOR). Woopty doo, Orioles fans. Goin' down the only road I've ever known!

The Orioles are 63-70 on this off day, 18 games out of first place. In the last ten, they're the only AL East squad with a losing record, going 3-7. The rest of the division has won six of the last ten.

The Orioles are 50-45 in night games this season, and just 13-25 in day games. Good thing we don't have a Cubs schedule.

The Orioles are 20-23 in one-run games, a massive improvement on the 13-31 mark from 2007, which was by far the worst in Major League Baseball.

Jeremy Guthrie is tied for sixth in the American League in ERA (3.28). The top ten, with W-L records thrown in, looks like this:

Cliff Lee, CLE (2.43, 19-2) ... Justin Duchscherer, OAK (2.54, 10-8) ... Roy Halladay, TOR (2.69, 16-9) ... John Lackey, LAA (2.95, 11-2) ... Armando Galarraga, DET (3.20, 12-4) ... Guthrie, BAL (3.28, 10-10) ... Felix Hernandez, SEA (3.28, 8-8) ... John Danks, CWS (3.30, 10-7) ... Ervin Santana, LAA (3.41, 13-5) ... Mike Mussina, NYY (3.45, 16-7)

Looking over those records and ERAs, I think you have to really be somewhat in awe of how good Cliff Lee has been. Halladay has thrown more innings, but Lee has been so dominant that he's managed to go 19-2 on a team that is two games under .500. He's credited for nearly one-third of their wins.

The O's have scored 5.13 runs per game, good for fourth in the American League behind Texas (5.54), Boston (5.21) and Chicago (5.17). At Camden Yards, the Birds score 5.31 runs per game, and on the road, 4.96. Last year, the team scored 4.67 runs per game, ninth in the AL.

The O's have allowed 5.14 runs per game, which is second-worst in the American League, ahead of only the deplorable Rangers (a staggering 5.99). The O's team ERA is 4.88. Last year, the Birds allowed 5.36 RPG with a 5.17 ERA, so it is an improvement. Not much one of, but an improvement.

In these respects, I think the "improvement" of this year's team is to some degree a smoke-and-mirrors act. The pitching is still God awful and that desperately needs to be rectified. No matter how many runs you score, it's tough to win when you routinely give up just as many. We know this, right? Pitching has to be considered priority No. 1 as far as any potential offseason moves go. Guthrie can't do this all by himself.

Frankly, this year's O's squad -- the competitive! team -- has had one of the worst starting rotations we've seen yet. Outside of Guthrie, they are all terrible. Look at these numbers:

And yes, this means that Daniel Cabrera still sucks, and that he's just as bad as he was last season. This "useful back-end starter" thing is not really very true. He's really, really bad.

This one truly warms my heart: Nick Markakis is fourth in the American League in on-base percentage at .403. He trails Milton Bradley (.446), Joe Mauer (.410) and J.D. Drew (.408). Markakis is fourth in the league in walks (84).

Aubrey Huff is sixth in the American League in slugging percentage (.566), fifth in OPS (.932), third in doubles (40), first in total bases (286), tied for fourth in home runs (29), sixth in RBI (94), fifth in adjusted OPS+ (143), third in runs created (107), fifth in adjusted batting runs (31), fifth in batting wins (2.9), first in extra-base hits (71), seventh in offensive win percentage (.701), and has a VORP of 53.9, by far the best on the team.

In other words, Aubrey Huff is the balls.

Brian Roberts leads the league in doubles (46), is third in triples (8), tied for tenth in walks (68), fifth in stolen bases (33), and third in times on base (226).

You know who's first in times on base? Markakis, with 240.

Melvin Mora has 97 RBI, and is having his best season since 2004, which is almost entirely thanks to a hot July and an unimaginably scorching August. Let's not forget the Melvin Mora of the first half, though. He hit .232/.300/.385. He was freaking awful. Awful, awful, awful, terrible, bad. He was so bad that they should have given up on the old fart and tried strugglin' Mike Costanzo or Scott Moore or my cat or anyone. He was hideous.

But in July he hit .311/.373/.533 with five homers, and this month he's been postively Herculean, going ape bananas at .427/.463/.781 with eight home runs.

More on Melvin: in seven games against the Tigers, Mora has hit .571/.618/1.393 with six home runs and 17 RBI. In 12 games against the Red Sox, Melvin has decided to take a nap to the tune of .111/.222/.200 with two extra-base hits (a homer and a double).

Folks that say Jay Payton has done a super duper job this season live on a different planet than I do. I respect his capability to fill in in center field with AJ out and I haven't once been truly annoyed by the dude this year as I was last year, but he's getting a lot of compliments like he's been some sort of genuine positive to the team. There are a lot of fourth/fifth outfielders that could hit .256/.300/.363. He's just as bad as he was last year, but there's been a lot less of him.

I said around the All-Star break that I thought Ramon Hernandez would bounce back in the second half because he'd been incredibly unlucky in the first half. This was no grand statement or amazing guesstimate, but he's done pretty well, hitting .288/.344/.492 since the break. I'd take those numbers out of a catcher any day. Of course I'd also prefer one that wasn't as lazy as he is behind the plate. He has also regressed back to stinking in August (.253/.292/.361).

Left-handed batters are hitting .324 with seven homers against Jamie Walker. Ummm, not cool, bro. I still love Jamie Jam Walker, but he's had a terrible season.

Since coming to the Orioles, Juan Castro has hit .214/.248/.276. He's 36 years old. He's never been any good at all. And this is the guy that wins shortstop for the season. Unbelievable.

Luke Scott has been our version of Trot Nixon, and will probably have roughly the same shelf life. He really needs a lefty-mashing platoon partner (.762 OPS v. LHP is not horrible, though). In this regard, I'll give Payton a little credit: he has bopped lefties at a .551 slugging clip. All six of his homers have come against left-handed pitchers.

Lou Montanez has been fun to watch. No numbers.

This really should be the last season for Kevin Millar as an Oriole. I say that with respect for the guy, too. It's just that his OPS has dropped every season as an Oriole -- .811 in 2006, .785 in 2007, .755 this season. He's already pretty well below standard for a first baseman, and pushing him any further as a starter would probably be a really bad idea. He does get credit for making the team fun again, and giving them some much-needed personality. And he hasn't killed us as a player or anything. But any further down the ladder, and he will. He's not getting younger.

This is the prevailing thought of Ol' Clench Jaw, the one thing he seems to yammer on about more than all other potential thoughts on why the team has struggled.

I know what you might be thinking. "But, Scott! This team's .500ish play is one of the most surprising things in baseball!"

Yeah, I know, but struggling is struggling. You're either good or you're not. They're struggling to reach .500. They struggle. All the time.

Some folks 'round these parts have started wondering something else. "Well, if the problem is they aren't pitching deeper...then leave them the hell in the game, Dave."

Fair enough. There have been times when it seems he's taken the hook out a little early, and times when it seems he's taken the hook out a little late. But "early" seems to be more the problem. The winds of change -- thanks to the recent losing -- have started to sing a tale of Trembley's over-reliance on the bullpen. Let's take a look at pitch count data for our current starting five and see if we can find a method to Trembley's madness.

(All numbers are grabbed from Yahoo! Sports)

Some tidbits about the numbers, and conclusions you can draw, and other than that I leave the numbers up to you to interpret how you wish:

1. The only guy on the team that doesn't start really, really slowly in the average start is Burres. He makes up for a solid 1-15 with a terrible 16-45, though.
2. Guthrie might get by without good run support if he didn't stink for 30 pitches.
3. Olson's good for about 75 pitches, which isn't surprising.
4. There's not really enough data on Liz (33 IP) to find anything meaningful.

You may recall the original list (CC.com's Fairly Well-Informed Top 20 O's Prospects) from April, and hey, let's kill some time this morning and look at how the 20 fellas are doing in 2008.

(Teams that the player has also played for this season are in parentheses. Current team is listed first, obviously.)

1. Matt Wieters, C, Bowie (Frederick)

With the way Wieters is raking in his first pro season, it might not be long until we see him sporting that cap for good.

In 69 games with Frederick, Wieters torched the Carolina League to the tune of .345/.448/.576 with 15 homers. In 13 games since his call-up to Double-A Bowie, the Georgia Tech grad is hitting .356/.442/.600 with two more longballs. He's not just the best Orioles prospects, I'd have to rate him top five in all of baseball right now. There has been no learning curve at all. He stormed out of the gates at Frederick and had only a couple of minor slumps along the way, proving in 229 at-bats that he was way too good for the league.

With the way Ramon Hernandez is hitting, fielding and aging, Wieters might see Baltimore by the end of the year. Why not? He's 22 years old, a polished college prospect, and he's treating the minor leagues like a Hall of Famer on a rehab assignment. He's coming.

2. Bill Rowell, 3B, Frederick

Even though he was only 18 years old when he hit the Sally League in 2007, his .426 slugging percentage was still a very mild discouragement. Still, it was easy to keep the faith in Rowell, whose 6'5" frame promises to deliver power at some point.

The question now might be if he'll ever deliver anything more than an eventual home run stroke. Let's not sugar coat it. We're talking about the ninth overall pick of the 2006 draft, and at 19, he's being dominated at High-A ball. Yes, he's only 19, and no, that's no reason to give up on him or even get close to giving up.

But is his putrid .230/.289/.360 line something that raises a red flag? Absolutely, it is. He missed a lot of April with a leg injury, then hit .253/.310/.396 in May. Hey, maybe just a late start, right? Give him time.

June was atrocious: .185/.241/.296. The good news is that through eight games in July, he's starting to heat up, at a .296/.367/.519 clip over eight games. Keep it "rowell"-in', Bill. Ahhhhhahahahaha!

Seriously, though.

3. Radhames Liz, RHP, Baltimore (Norfolk)

Liz has been made a necessity in Baltimore thanks to the injuries to Adam Loewen and the farewell 10-game disaster that was undoubtedly Steve Trachsel's last time in a baseball uniform that doesn't have him coaching little league or something.

He's not THAT young -- he turned 25 in June. His 11 starts in Norfolk went OK (4.05 ERA in 60 innings with a good K-rate), but he's clearly not there yet as a guy who's going to contribute positive results to a major league rotation. The stuff is good, but he leaves pitches up and has real control problems (shocker for an O's prospect).

Totally Rad (seriously, watch that video) still has real promise, because a good arm's a good arm, and at least he doesn't get hurt all the time. He's got gnarly potential. But what's with all the jogging? Can't he just learn magic and skip the aerobics?

Is Rick Kranitz, in fact, Zeb? Either way, I think Kranitz is totally decent.

4. Nolan Reimold, OF, Bowie

Facts are facts, and fact is, Nolan Reimold looks like a stoner. The kind that says "ganja green" and buys Hendrix shirts at Target.

His overall numbers are solid, at .286/.359/.500, and they are also hampered by a dismal April where he hit just .232/.324/.347. Reimold's ceiling might not be all that high -- I'm starting to think he'll end up sort of like Luke Scott, but a right-handed bat with more injury problems. He had a torrid May (.312/.414/.606, 6 HR), and he's on a rampage so far in July (.382/.389/.824, 4 HR).

In a perfect world, we finally see Nolan in Baltimore this year, too, and we see him for good starting next spring. There's no reason to not. Let's hope he can stay healthy this season, which has been his biggest problem to date. With the way Rowell's swinging right now, I think Reimold should be bumped up to No. 2 positional prospect.

5. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Frederick

The 22-year old TCU product that dropped in the draft and was a mild money gamble by the O's is paying off. See, between Wieters and Arrieta, is dealing with Scott Boras really all that bad? He's got good clients!

Arrieta is a Carolina League All-Star with a 2.75 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, with 108 strikeouts in 101.1 innings pitched. Not bad at all, eh?

He did have a rough June, missing a couple starts and posting a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings, but he dominated in April and May and his last two starts have been back to the general overpowering of High-A hitters. A bump up may soon be in the making here, too.

If anyone ever gives this guy the "Jake the Snake" nickname, I'm going to barf. Enough with that already. The world has seen enough Jakes the Snakes.

6. Chris Tillman, RHP, Bowie

Chris Tillman was serious when that photo is taken, and he's serious about striking fools out. With 87 whiffs in 83.2 innings at Bowie so far this season, he's sporting a 7-2 record and 3.12 ERA.

While his line might not look overly impressive -- good K-rate, but not eye-popping, good ERA but not dominant, decent but unexciting WHIP (1.31) -- you have to remember that Tillman turned 20 in April. This dude can't even go buy beer yet, and he's more than holding his own in Double-A, which in a lot of instances these days is the last step before the majors.

There's also almost no way he's fully grown into his body yet. At 6'5", he's listed at 195 pounds. He'll pack on at least 20 more before he's matured.

If we'd gotten nothing back besides Adam Jones and Tillman in the Bedard trade, it would stand right now as a first-class fleecing. While E.B. Farnum struggles mightily just to keep his head above water with the terrible Mariners, we've got a young center fielder with tremendous upside and a 20-year old that's working it in Double-A ball. Plus, we got MORE out of them. God. I genuinely feel bad for their fans.

7. Garrett Olson, LHP, Baltimore (Norfolk)

When Olson came up in 2007, he was No. 57, an obvious fill-in who would be back down as soon as his services were no longer necessary. His call-up this year came as No. 18, a guy who was taking a spot in the rotation. There's a lot to be said for numbers, even past spring training.

Olson's not been awesome or anything, at 5.65/1.57. Like Liz, he's suspceptible to getting lit right up on any night, which makes the nights where he looks smooth and effective easy to forget. He's 24, so he's still learning on the job, really.

But you can say this for Olson over Loewen: at least you know he'll be there every fifth day. While Loewen's debacle of a 2008 season is most likely over after two trips to the disabled list, Olson continues to ply his trade on the big stage, and it looks like he's here to stay for now. He was never supposed to be an ace or anything, most likely panning out to a No. 4 starter, or a No. 3 in good years.

The '08 Orioles, however, have gotten something very valuable from him. Innings. Innings that Mr. Major League Contract can't deliver. Loewen Replacement will be a position unto itself as long as Adam is an Oriole.

8. Chorye Spoone, RHP, Bowie

Spoone has made just nine starts, missing all of May and a portion of both April and June. And the starts he has made haven't been his best.

In those nine injury-affected outings, he's gone 3-3 with a 4.57 ERA and ugly 1.61 WHIP. But the really worrisome thing about his numbers is they aren't exactly out of the norm. Remember, Spoone's 2007 was considered a major step up. Everything improved dramatically. Right now, he's just pitching almost exactly like he did in 2005-06.

Let's just look at 2006-08, and you'll see what I mean:

The one rate that has spiked his his homers per nine. In 2006, he was at .35, last year at .47. This year, .87. That's a major difference. But I am back to questioning whether a guy named Chorye Spoone can be a good big league ballplayer. Tim Spooneybarger didn't make it -- in fact, he's with Aberdeen, which I will admit to being totally psyched on.

9. Tony Butler, LHP, Delmarva

Butler currently sits on the Shorebirds DL with tendinitis in his left arm. Not a great sign, but he's only 20. It would also help to explain what was a pretty lackluster performance for a genuine prospect (not a great one, but a real one) at Low-A.

In 55 innings prior to the injury, Butler had put up a 4.42 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, with 7.2 K/9. What is VERY encouraging is his outstanding BB rate, as he put just 11 on base via the free pass. Not too shabby at all there.

Butler was one of the other two pickups in the Bedard deal, and even though he's out of action right now, hey...we win again.

I would like to find out if he has an abnormally high singing voice so I know whether or not I can start calling him Tony Soprano.

You got a bee onna you hat.

10. Hayden Penn, RHP, Norfolk

These slight disappointments are sent to prepare
For what may hereafter befall;
For seasons of real disappointment and care,
Which commonly happen to all.
-- Jane Taylor, 'The Disappointment'

If it wasn't quite time to forget about Hayden Penn as any real part of the Orioles future in 2007, it certainly looks like it is now. The guy just isn't getting hitters out in Triple-A ball.

It also appears now that a great opportunity was missed to trade Penn in 2005 or even 2006, because he'd be a throw-in piece for anything worthwhile anymore.

This isn't really an injury case, though he missed much of 2007; or a bad luck case, or anything else. This is just a case of a guy who's not very good. I wanted to hold out hope for Hayden, but it's probably time to give up the ghost. He's a minor league gap-filler.

11. Tim Bascom, RHP, Frederick

I'm going to just go ahead and admit that my 10 and 11 guys are screwing the pooch a little bit so far in 2008. I was probably overrating Feel Good Story Bascom a little to begin with, and he's doing me no favors now.

THAT SAID...

He missed all of April and made just two starts in May, so he got a late jump and is probably still working to getting up to 100% on the field. Still, though, the numbers are the numbers. At 23, he's got a 4.89 ERA at Frederick. Not good. His K-to-BB is about 1.5-to-1. Not good. He's getting tagged by hitters. Not good.

12. Troy Patton, LHP, A Rehab Center

We got Patton hurt, he was hurt when I made the list, and he's hurt now.

13. Brandon Snyder, 1B, Frederick

His May and June numbers look outstanding, but that's only because you might have looked at his awful April beforehand. He's raking in July, but it's July 10th, so we'll wait and see. An .800ish OPS at Frederick for a first baseman just isn't going to cut it as far as climbing the ladder goes. You can get that in a good year from Chris Vinyard.

Also, to those that have tried to sell Vinyard to me, can we declare that whole bit over? He's OPSing .698. He's got a brick for a glove, and designated hitters that slug .355 are a detriment at any level.

Snyder remains one of my favorite players in the system, but it'd take a fool to not admit he's rather failing thus far. A whole lot of things have gone wrong in his pro career. He turns 22 in November, so it's time to get a move on.

Tell him, Red. Come on, Brandon. Make it. See your friend, and shake his hand.

14. Brandon Erbe, RHP, Frederick

2006 with Delmarva went swimmingly for Erbe at age 18. At 19, 2007 in Frederick was a disaster, as he put up a 6.26 ERA and all kinds of things were deemed in need of a tune-up.

2008 has been a mixed bag. He dominated in April (2.73 ERA) and June (2.32 ERA), but was treated like steel at the mighty hands of John Henry in May (7.07 ERA). He's started using his slider as an out pitch, and worked away from his high school curveball. The guy has a serious arm, with big heat, and is another tall pitcher with a still-lanky build.

He's 20, and has shown vast improvement this year. While the overall numbers might not be stunning, they miss the point. He's made a massive turnaround from a year that might have ruined a lot of hyped young pitchers, and even came back in June from a terrible month of May. He's moving back up.

15. David Hernandez, RHP, Bowie

Just might be time to give the sleeper prospect of the organization a serious look.

Simple reasoning, really. Hernandez's power arm might not get him by as a starter in the majors, but I suspect he might soon be able to do a fair Jim Johnson impersonation were the need to arise to have an extra arm in the bullpen. He's fanning 10.13 per nine innings this season, which is consistent with previous numbers. His ERA is way down, he's got his WHIP down at 1.25, and his fastball/slider combo is the real deal, though he doesn't have a whole lot else.

The downside is what I already said, he might not make it as a starter given his lack of secondary pitches. But the upside might be a shutdown power reliever, too. No rush, though, since he IS a sleeper.

Quickies on 16-20, because they'd all either fall off this list or not qualify anymore:

16. Pedro Beato, RHP, Frederick: He's trying to get by striking out about four per nine. It's not going to work. Beato's peripherals indicate bad things to come if he ever gets out of A-ball.

17. Scott Moore/Mike Costanzo, 3B, Norfolk: It's taken until July, but Moore is finally hitting at Norfolk. There's also still zero excuse for his demotion in favor of the bumbling nimrods we've been putting at shortstop or a 100th pitcher. Costanzo's had a bit of a rough year, himself.

18. Matt Albers, RHP, DL: Uh ohhhh...

19. Randor Bierd, RHP, Rehab: RAN-DOOOOOR! was impressing before the injury. Here's looking forward to his return.

20. Bob McCrory, RHP, Norfolk: Will probably spend his life on the AAA-to-MLB train. Got smacked around and walked everyone in two-thirds of an inning of MLB work this year over two games. What about Bob?

Don't you ever be sad,
Lean on me when times are bad.
When the day comes and you're down,
In a river of trouble and about to drown

Just hold on, I'm comin',
Hold on, I'm comin'.

Following two straight devastatingly crappy losses, George Sherrill nailed down the ninth inning tonight as the Birds held on to down the Royals, 7-5.

We have a comfy 7-3 lead before Ol' Sar-farty came in there and started walking the field, but George knew what to do. Though he gave up a bleeder single that drove in two runs off the bat of Mark Grudzielanek, he then struck out Alex Gordon to FINISH IT! with aplomb.

Gordon had previously hit a monster home run in the first inning off of Radhames Liz that apparently one-hopped the Warehouse. Good great mamma jamma was that a shot.

Five interesting points of the game:

1. Second inning, Fahey hits a line drive double to left field that Jose Guillen bobbles on the pickup, allowing Adam Jones to score. Next batter is Roberts, who skies one into left center. Guillen, like the jerk he is, stands still and leaves Joey Gathright to fend for himself. Lucky for KC (and Guillen), Gathright makes the catch.
2. Bottom seven, game seeming to get a little too close for comfort. BRIAN ROBERTS SMASH
3. Adam Loewen makes a relief appearance, throwing two scoreless innings with a bit of mystery to them. Season ERA falls to 7.08.
4. Mora finally gets dropped in the order, falling to sixth, and goes 0-for-3 with a walk.
5. Jimmy Gobble makes duck feel better about his own last name.

via d.yimg.com

Chicago Cubs, meet your father. Your father is Aubrey Huff.

Who's today's.........GOAT??? Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

We're the only team besides Milwaukee to win a series at Wrigley this year. (I think I heard that right, anyway.)

Fun afternoon game. The bats came alive, Totally Rad Liz gave us six strong, we rocked Marquis, and Burres got back in there with an inning of relief (3 H, 1 ER). I've heard Burres knows how to step it up. I wish he'd use this knowledge to his advantage.

The WGN play of the game was the first pitch, so you know it was a good game for the other team.

UH! UH! UH!

UH! UH! UH!

In case you missed it, that's the scoop. Steve Trachsel will not return to the starting rotation. Instead, Radhames Liz is up and will take the ball tonight.

Luis Hernandez managed to hit a robust .241/.295/.253 in 79 at-bats this season, made several fielding and baserunning boners, and lost his job right quick to Freddie Bynum once Freddie was available for action.

Liz has a 4.05 ERA so far at Norfolk this season, with a hard luck 1-5 record. I'd rather see him than Trachsel any day. I'd rather see him try to hit and play short than Luis, too.

Going back to the shortstops, though, I do want to be really fair. Yes, Luis was terrible. But so was Fahey. So is Bynum (.210/.258/.274). So is Cintron (even counting his .350/.381/.350 line so far). They're all terrible and have no business starting in the majors. But there's also no reason to carry three of them, and they've kept the right two. Cintron is a better fielder and hitter than Hernandez, and Bynum's flexibility and CF availability makes him as useful as someone with a .532 OPS can be.

And from the Orioles team report:

Mora had no specific explanation for the throw, but the Orioles third baseman has been coming up short on a number of throws to first base lately. Mora has nine errors in 50 games at third base. Two came in Friday's game.

Jim Palmer in particular loves to talk about Melvin's great glove. He makes some highlight reel plays. He also screws up a lot. He's Derek Jeter, third baseman, without the star power or pinstripes or rings, though he is a playoff veteran of the first order.