The Orioles are 63-70 on this off day, 18 games out of first place. In the last ten, they're the only AL East squad with a losing record, going 3-7. The rest of the division has won six of the last ten.

The Orioles are 50-45 in night games this season, and just 13-25 in day games. Good thing we don't have a Cubs schedule.

The Orioles are 20-23 in one-run games, a massive improvement on the 13-31 mark from 2007, which was by far the worst in Major League Baseball.

Jeremy Guthrie is tied for sixth in the American League in ERA (3.28). The top ten, with W-L records thrown in, looks like this:

Cliff Lee, CLE (2.43, 19-2) ... Justin Duchscherer, OAK (2.54, 10-8) ... Roy Halladay, TOR (2.69, 16-9) ... John Lackey, LAA (2.95, 11-2) ... Armando Galarraga, DET (3.20, 12-4) ... Guthrie, BAL (3.28, 10-10) ... Felix Hernandez, SEA (3.28, 8-8) ... John Danks, CWS (3.30, 10-7) ... Ervin Santana, LAA (3.41, 13-5) ... Mike Mussina, NYY (3.45, 16-7)

Looking over those records and ERAs, I think you have to really be somewhat in awe of how good Cliff Lee has been. Halladay has thrown more innings, but Lee has been so dominant that he's managed to go 19-2 on a team that is two games under .500. He's credited for nearly one-third of their wins.

The O's have scored 5.13 runs per game, good for fourth in the American League behind Texas (5.54), Boston (5.21) and Chicago (5.17). At Camden Yards, the Birds score 5.31 runs per game, and on the road, 4.96. Last year, the team scored 4.67 runs per game, ninth in the AL.

The O's have allowed 5.14 runs per game, which is second-worst in the American League, ahead of only the deplorable Rangers (a staggering 5.99). The O's team ERA is 4.88. Last year, the Birds allowed 5.36 RPG with a 5.17 ERA, so it is an improvement. Not much one of, but an improvement.

In these respects, I think the "improvement" of this year's team is to some degree a smoke-and-mirrors act. The pitching is still God awful and that desperately needs to be rectified. No matter how many runs you score, it's tough to win when you routinely give up just as many. We know this, right? Pitching has to be considered priority No. 1 as far as any potential offseason moves go. Guthrie can't do this all by himself.

Frankly, this year's O's squad -- the competitive! team -- has had one of the worst starting rotations we've seen yet. Outside of Guthrie, they are all terrible. Look at these numbers:

And yes, this means that Daniel Cabrera still sucks, and that he's just as bad as he was last season. This "useful back-end starter" thing is not really very true. He's really, really bad.

This one truly warms my heart: Nick Markakis is fourth in the American League in on-base percentage at .403. He trails Milton Bradley (.446), Joe Mauer (.410) and J.D. Drew (.408). Markakis is fourth in the league in walks (84).

Aubrey Huff is sixth in the American League in slugging percentage (.566), fifth in OPS (.932), third in doubles (40), first in total bases (286), tied for fourth in home runs (29), sixth in RBI (94), fifth in adjusted OPS+ (143), third in runs created (107), fifth in adjusted batting runs (31), fifth in batting wins (2.9), first in extra-base hits (71), seventh in offensive win percentage (.701), and has a VORP of 53.9, by far the best on the team.

In other words, Aubrey Huff is the balls.

Brian Roberts leads the league in doubles (46), is third in triples (8), tied for tenth in walks (68), fifth in stolen bases (33), and third in times on base (226).

You know who's first in times on base? Markakis, with 240.

Melvin Mora has 97 RBI, and is having his best season since 2004, which is almost entirely thanks to a hot July and an unimaginably scorching August. Let's not forget the Melvin Mora of the first half, though. He hit .232/.300/.385. He was freaking awful. Awful, awful, awful, terrible, bad. He was so bad that they should have given up on the old fart and tried strugglin' Mike Costanzo or Scott Moore or my cat or anyone. He was hideous.

But in July he hit .311/.373/.533 with five homers, and this month he's been postively Herculean, going ape bananas at .427/.463/.781 with eight home runs.

More on Melvin: in seven games against the Tigers, Mora has hit .571/.618/1.393 with six home runs and 17 RBI. In 12 games against the Red Sox, Melvin has decided to take a nap to the tune of .111/.222/.200 with two extra-base hits (a homer and a double).

Folks that say Jay Payton has done a super duper job this season live on a different planet than I do. I respect his capability to fill in in center field with AJ out and I haven't once been truly annoyed by the dude this year as I was last year, but he's getting a lot of compliments like he's been some sort of genuine positive to the team. There are a lot of fourth/fifth outfielders that could hit .256/.300/.363. He's just as bad as he was last year, but there's been a lot less of him.

I said around the All-Star break that I thought Ramon Hernandez would bounce back in the second half because he'd been incredibly unlucky in the first half. This was no grand statement or amazing guesstimate, but he's done pretty well, hitting .288/.344/.492 since the break. I'd take those numbers out of a catcher any day. Of course I'd also prefer one that wasn't as lazy as he is behind the plate. He has also regressed back to stinking in August (.253/.292/.361).

Left-handed batters are hitting .324 with seven homers against Jamie Walker. Ummm, not cool, bro. I still love Jamie Jam Walker, but he's had a terrible season.

Since coming to the Orioles, Juan Castro has hit .214/.248/.276. He's 36 years old. He's never been any good at all. And this is the guy that wins shortstop for the season. Unbelievable.

Luke Scott has been our version of Trot Nixon, and will probably have roughly the same shelf life. He really needs a lefty-mashing platoon partner (.762 OPS v. LHP is not horrible, though). In this regard, I'll give Payton a little credit: he has bopped lefties at a .551 slugging clip. All six of his homers have come against left-handed pitchers.

Lou Montanez has been fun to watch. No numbers.

This really should be the last season for Kevin Millar as an Oriole. I say that with respect for the guy, too. It's just that his OPS has dropped every season as an Oriole -- .811 in 2006, .785 in 2007, .755 this season. He's already pretty well below standard for a first baseman, and pushing him any further as a starter would probably be a really bad idea. He does get credit for making the team fun again, and giving them some much-needed personality. And he hasn't killed us as a player or anything. But any further down the ladder, and he will. He's not getting younger.

8:05 on FOX, y'all. Let's take this stupid, pointless day as a chance to talk a lot of B.S. about players that have no real bearing on our team. Rock and roll, hoochie koo.

	Today's Starting Pitchers	GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	BAA	HR	BB	K	W-L
	Ben Sheets - RH - Brewers	18	123.0	2.85	1.11	.235	13	28	108	10-3
	Cliff Lee - LH - Indians	18	124.2	2.31	1.03	.234	5	20	106	12-2

	National League	AB	AVG	OBP	HR	RBI
1	Hanley Ramirez - SS - Marlins	373	.311	.391	23	45
2	Chase Utley - 2B - Phillies	364	.291	.372	25	69
3	Lance Berkman - 1B - Astros	334	.347	.443	22	73
4	Albert Pujols - DH - Cardinals	286	.350	.466	18	50
5	Chipper Jones - 3B - Braves	298	.376	.472	18	51
6	Matt Holliday - RF - Rockies	309	.337	.421	14	51
7	Ryan Braun - LF - Brewers	377	.286	.324	23	66
8	Kosuke Fukudome - CF - Cubs	326	.279	.383	7	36
9	Geovany Soto - C - Cubs	316	.288	.369	16	56

	American League	AB	AVG	OBP	HR	RBI
1	Ichiro - RF - Mariners	391	.304	.366	3	21
2	Derek Jeter - SS - Yankees	352	.284	.345	5	42
3	Josh Hamilton - CF - Rangers	377	.310	.367	21	95
4	Alex Rodriguez - 3B - Yankees	279	.312	.392	19	53
5	Manny Ramirez - LF - Red Sox	328	.293	.389	18	60
6	Milton Bradley - DH - Rangers	269	.316	.440	19	57
7	Kevin Youkilis - 1B - Red Sox	328	.314	.381	15	63
8	Joe Mauer - C - Twins	301	.322	.418	5	41
9	Dustin Pedroia - 2B - Red Sox	395	.314	.357	9	47

Yep, four Rangers. What can you do? Bradley, Hamilton and Kinsler are killing the ball. I debated a few positions. I wasn't terribly comfortable voting Bradley as an OFer, but the way he's hitting, he's on my team somehow or another. He has played about 15 games in the outfield anyway. DH was hard, but ultimately I let favoritism win out and took Huff over Oritz, who is slightly better but has played less. Plus he's on the DL, so screw Papi. Plus DH is pretty weak.

First base was between Giambi and Youkilis, and it's a toss-up. Mauer was a no-brainer. Young isn't terribly good but he's the best of the bunch. Boy does Jeter stink.

You don't get to vote pitcher, obviously, but I'd take Cliff Lee for throwing about 30 more innings than Justin Duchscherer, who has been off his nut starting for the A's with a sub-2 ERA. Most of the AL's best pitchers have crap W-L records, but Lee is both legitimately great all of a sudden and 11-1.

The DH should be Pujols. Hard to leave him off, but Berkman is just a little better. The OF was weird to pick. Burrell, LUDWICK??, and Bay? Sure, why not. Volquez over Lincecum at SP for me, but that one's tough, too. McCann by a hair or two over Soto. Utley over Uggla was another tough pick.

No-brainers: butt-fugly Chipper Jones and Hanley Ramirez.

Who ya got?

I thought it'd be peachy keen and a whole lot of good ol' fashioned fun to look back on the first two weeks of the 2008 season, so let's do it!

via d.yimg.com

The biggest surprise of the young season isn't the 8-6 Orioles, 8-6 Royals, or 10-4 Cardinals. No, those things happen. Poor teams, or at least teams that aren't expected by many to contend, get off to good starts for one reason or another all the time. Sometimes, they sustain it. Most times, they do not.

The biggest surprise is the 4-10 Detroit Tigers. I'll admit it -- I bought into the hype. While I wasn't overly impressed with their pitching (in particular the awful Dontrelle Willis), that lineup looked scary. I was talking with a friend during their Opening Day game, a loss to the Royals, and we were going on and on about how deadly that lineup really was. They were dangerous 1-through-9, even without Curtis Granderson. Brandon Inge is not a special hitter by any means, but that guy hit 27 homers a couple years ago. And he was hitting ninth that day.

Edgar Renteria went 1-for-5, Placido Polanco went 0-for-6, Miguel Cabrera was 1-for-5...and they lost. And then they kept losing. Only a couple of consecutive wins over the Twins (11-9 and 6-5) have them at 4-10.

All those 1,000 run season predictions are looking awful. And kind of foolish, the more you think about it. Gary Sheffield is 39 years old. 34-year old Magglio Ordonez is coming off of a total career season, and the same probably goes for the 32-year old Placido Polanco. 36-year old Pudge Rodriguez is an offensive zero at this point; not that Jim Leyland has noticed. And Edgar Renteria's only other year in the American League was a flop.

And that pitching staff? Goodness gracious, great balls of fire. Look at the ERA/WHIPs on their starters: Bonderman 4.58/1.64, Verlander 6.52/1.19, Rogers 6.75/1.91, Willis 7.20/2.00, Robertson 7.84/1.84.

They are sporting a 5.95 team ERA right now. Nobody can overcome that, I don't care if they DO score a thousand runs.

I've watched them play plenty. They look awful. They have been outscored 87 to 46. I don't think they can make the playoffs as they're currently built. This is a Titanic team.

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via d.yimg.com

The Chicago White Sox would scare the hell out of me if I were any of the AL big dogs.

Sure, Jim Thome looks like toast so far (.156/.240/.333 in 45 ABs). But a lot of these guys are killing the ball, and as bad as Jose Contreras is (6.17/1.97), they have a pitching staff that could cause trouble. Buehrle, Floyd and Vazquez are a fine front three, especially for a team that could hit like this one just might.

Nick Swisher was Kenny Williams' best move ever, probably. He's absolutely perfect for the Ozzie Guillen White Sox. Not only is he loud, noticeable, energetic and a real go-getter in every facet of the game, but he's also good. He is fast becoming the face of the White Sox. This was a guy that was born to be loved by modern day White Sox fans.

As for Joe Crede, just when you think he's out, he pulls you back in.

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via d.yimg.com

The Arizona Diamondbacks are good. While they made the playoffs in 2007 with a lot of young dudes and a whole truck load of luck, they made the very smart decision to not rest on their laurels. Sure, that team was bound to probably get a little bit legitimately better anyway, but they went out and got Dan Haren (2-0, 2.50/1.00) to add to Brandon Webb (3-0, 2.14/0.86), and now they have Randy Johnson back in the fold. Johnson is older than dirt and still uglier than boiled sin, but what if you get five-to-six innings a night out of him and then save him for the postseason? That could be a deadly front three.

What's more than that, they've got some hitters. Justin Upton is swinging at a .388/.429/.712 clip so far, and Mark Reynolds is crushing the ball (.612 SLG, 5 HR). When you add in Eric Byrnes, Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew and Orlando Hudson, you could be looking at a pretty damn good lineup.

If you ask me, right now, at this moment, they are the best team in baseball.

 

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Quick Thoughts!

• The Chicago Cubs are not going to be a lot better than they were last year. Call it a hunch. Their rotation puts me off. I'd be way behind the Milwaukee Brewers to take that division in a surprising cakewalk, but I still recall the Brewers and Cubs locked in that deathmatch last summer to see who would decide to lose the division first. Kerry Wood -- oh, man. What you could have been.
• The Mariners are not contending for anything. Maybe it's because I watched us -- the ORIOLES, for God's sake -- sweep a four-game series against them, or maybe it's because I know Erik Bedard, and him being on the 15-day DL not only doesn't surprise me, but I have the sneaking suspicion it'll last a lot longer than 15 days. Maybe it's because their lineup lacks plenty. Maybe it's because I read Lookout Landing and those guys seem to have realistic expectations.
• If I were the rest of the AL Central, I reckon I'd keep my eye on the Kansas City Royals. Of the two legitimately midwest teams, they're the surprising above .500 club that I think has the much better shot at staying in that vicinity. Meche and Bannister are bona fide.
• The really notable thing about David Ortiz starting the season on a horrific schneid (.104/.246/.167) is that it makes Manny Ramirez worse, too. With Ortiz struggling so mightily, Ramirez has a 17-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is way out of wack for him. He's crushing the ball, to be sure, and JD Drew is helping to pick up the slack, but the Red Sox are no unstoppable force right now.
• On the topic of last year's World Series participants, I hate to say it, but Rockies fans might want to get used to what they're seeing. That team was a miracle.
• The Yankees are run by a loud-mouth moron who recalls the golden age of "Mr." Steinbrenner himself. How long before this jackass gets himself fined or suspended by Major League Baseball? If you were ever thinking that the Red Sox had overtaken the Yankees as baseball's most hateable team, Hank Steinbrenner has come to ensure that no one ever tops the Bronx Bombs.
• Miguel Tejada went from one crappy orange team to another. Hope he's having a blast. Wait until mid-June, when he starts complaining.
• The Pirates are at .500. Thought I'd make note of that now. They're trying to tie a record for consecutive ineptness, going for their 16th straight losing campaign. The record is held by the 1933-48 Philadelphia Phillies. Part of me identifies with modern day Pittsburgh baseball fans, but the majority of me wants to see them tie that record. Go, Pirates, go!
• One thing I have learned about the Oakland Athletics, despite every TV commentator in the land and their smug sense of superiority over the fact that they never won the World Series and appear unlikely to do it any time soon: Never count a Billy Beane team out. Never.
• Cristian Guzman leads the poor Washington Expos in almost everything. Welcome to the new park. Same crummy team.