Way back on March 30th, Orioles "sideline" reporter Amber Theoharis blogged about "blind faith," then tried to convince you that the results of blind faith were, in fact, logical. Even though she had said, "Sometimes people have to choose to believe in something even when rationality tells them it’s not possible."

She also said that we should focus on the word "choose," which is odd considering she said people HAD TO make that choice. That's not very democratic, Am-bear.

But aside from her rather off-kilter ramblings, she made some statistical projections that she was confident in. She brought the world of scouting into the process, hoping to give everyone in scouting a bad name, I suppose, saying, "Any baseball scout will tell you, they are all very realistic numbers for these respective players."

They weren't realistic. And weren't we supposed to be considering this all blind faith, anyway? Wasn't it supposed to be the result of magic and luck and us NEEDING to make that choice so that we'd have a purpose to LIVE?

Oh, what a world.

Amber Sez: What if Millar, Ramon Hernandez, Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott all hit 25 home runs?

Millar hit 20, with a .717 OPS, .255 EqA and a -0.3 VORP. So basically all he did was pop a few home runs and walk a few times, batting .234/.323/.394, which is an atrocious year for a starting first baseman. Millar needs to go. That can't be done again if this team seriously thinks they're rebuilding and loading up for the future.

0-for-1

Ramon Hernandez struggled through a horrendous first half (.237/.284/.378) but hit eight of his 15 homers, which shows you, along with Millar, that Amber basing success on home run totals and pitching wins was probably a really bad idea to begin with. He hit seven more in the second half, and was much better at the plate, going .285/.341/.446 after the All-Star break. Most of that power, though, was used up in July, where he hit five home runs and slugged .554. In August and September, he slugged .379 and .352, respectively. Hernandez wound up with a 10.2 VORP (sixth-best on the team) and .252 EqA. He could have been worse. For the money, he should have been better.

0-for-2

Nick Markakis came in with 20 homers, a full five short of Amber's hope, but 25 for Markakis isn't an outrageous bet, and he also lost a few homers, probably, by walking 99 times and posting a .406 on-base percentage, which anchored his 49.9 VORP and team-best .310 EqA. Though he doesn't meet the raw total, I believe this should be counted as a win for Amber. Markakis, minus a few homers, had a better year than I expected he might, and if he hits like this for 10 more years (not a stretch, really), and sticks around for all that time (might be a stretch), then you're looking at one of the 10 greatest Orioles to ever lace 'em up. Big demands! It's not a demand.

1-for-3

Amber obviously gets a point from Aubrey Huff, the first legitimate big bat, middle of the lineup home run threat this team has had in years. Huff came in with a team-best 58.4 VORP and placed second in EqA (.307) to go along with 32 homers and a .552 slugging percentage. The last Oriole to slug .550 or better was Melvin Mora in 2004, and before that, Eric Davis in 1998. Big year for Huff, big win for Amber and her mystery scouts.

2-for-4

Luke Scott hit 23 homers and was perfectly confident, but we did overrate Luke Scott a little bit. He hit .257/.336/.472 in left field, which has been a black hole for years. The league average EqA is always .260, and Luke came in at .278. He had some horrible cold stretches where it seemed like he couldn't hit anything, but streakiness also helped him during hot streaks, so it's a give and take. I'm giving Amber a point on this one.

3-for-5 -- a solid first round, though Millar and Ramon were both glorious in missing the mark, like aiming for the apple and arrowing the young man square in the eyeball.

Amber Sez: What if Melvin Mora, Adam Jones and Brian Roberts hit 15-20 dingers?

Look, I'm giving Amber her point on Melvin Mora, but Melvin Mora's 2008 is one of those times where I will go, "The statistics can certainly be misleading." This guy MURDERED us in the first half of the season, hitting .232/.300/.385. Again, 11 of his 23 homers came in the first half, so big whoop on home runs sometimes. In the second half, he scorched the league at a .376/.417/.656 clip, which would be big numbers for ANYONE in baseball. So, at 36, Melvin wound up with a year that got him back to 2005 numbers, if hardly 2003-04 numbers. But if you expect that Melvin Mora is going to be a positive contributor down the line, there's a baseball team in Washington I'd like to sell you.

4-for-6

Adam Jones hit nine home runs with a .252 EqA and 8.9 VORP. This does not merit a point, nor does it merit much further discussion. He will get better. Remember early in the year when he literally could not hit a Major League breaking ball? Unlike Kosuke Fukudome, who is significantly older and significantly higher-paid, Jones made some adjustments.

4-for-7

Brian Roberts hit nine home runs and had a great season (.295 EqA, 50.6 VORP, .296/.378/.450, 51 doubles, 40-for-50 on stolen bases), but this does not get a Home Run Point. It gets a good player point, sure, but I gave her Markakis in a situation close to this and Luke Scott out of the goodness of my stupid, dorky heart. She's not getting Brian Roberts.

4-for-8

Amber Sez: What if Guthrie wins 15 games, and Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera win more than 10? What if George Sherrill proves to be the shutdown closer the Orioles have missed since B.J. Ryan left for free agency?

Nope, nope, nope, aaaaand, nope. Guthrie won 10 games. I'd be nice and give her Guts because he had a good season, but that would be giving the idea of wins being the important pitching statistic merit, which I will not do. Guthrie did not win 15 games. He did not come close to winning 15 games.

Adam Loewen won 0 games, because he sucks, and Daniel Cabrera won eight, because he sucks, too. 0-for-3 on the starters.

George Sherrill was a lot of things, but "shutdown" was not one of them. The man's ERA was 4.72. 0-for-4 total on the pitchers.

Amber's Final Tally: 4-for-12 (.333) overall. That'll get you in the Hall of Fame.

Logos courtesy Chris Creamer's SportsLogos.net

With the 2008 baseball season coming to a close (a thankful close, if you've watched the O's play this month), I thought it'd be fun to look back on the AL East, baseball's strongest division, and no longer simply a two-horse race.

It doesn't exactly represent what went down in the AL East this season, with Tampa Bay claiming the title (knock on wood) in their first-ever winning season and Boston never being seriously challenged for second place and the wild card. With New York crumbling under the average age of their roster (rivaling the age of the stadium they've closed), and Toronto being Toronto, somewhere in the middle, and a general nuisance at best. But an All-American League East team seemed like a decent idea. Hey, why not? The Sun Belt Conference names an all-conference team.

STARTING PITCHER: ROY HALLADAY, TORONTO

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It would be impossible to argue anyone else in the division as a better starting pitcher in 2008 (or period, probably) than Roy Halladay. The closest comparison is Boston's Jon Lester -- not Beckett, not Kazmir, not Shields, not Wang, not Mussina. Jon Lester. Go figure.

Halladay is a Cy Young contender, at least relatively. Cliff Lee absolutely should win the award, and there's no question about that. But Halladay will get his share of Cy Young votes, and as good as he is year in and year out, he deserves it.

CATCHER: DIONER NAVARRO, TAMPA BAY

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It's not so much that Navarro had some great season, but the cupboard is pretty bare for good catchers within the division. Ramon Hernandez needed a solid second half to even claw back into "below average" territory, and his defense is so atrocious that he'd have had to significantly out-hit Navarro anyway. Varitek stunk, Posada got hurt, the Jays had the underwhelming Gregg Zaun (nephew of Rick Dempsey, if you had never heard) and Rod Barajas splitting time. All in all, a putrid year for AL East catchers.

Navarro wins on being solid. He hit for a nice average, kept his OBP fairly strong, and managed to sneak his slugging over .400. He also made his first All-Star team. Way to go, dude! You win!

FIRST BASE: KEVIN YOUKILIS, BOSTON

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An outstanding year for Youkilis, who sacrificed some walks and came away with a power bump, a risky move that paid off. Throw in the fact that he should win the Gold Glove hands down, and he's a runaway choice.

With David Ortiz hurting, Manny Ramirez traded, Mike Lowell regressing, and J.D. Drew doing his usual DL dance, it was Youkilis' power bat that carried the Boston lineup. Youkilis set career highs in doubles, homers, hits, average, slugging percentage, and sacrificed no on-base percentage thanks to the spike in his contact numbers. In a year where things could have gone very wrong for Boston, Youkilis was one of the guys that put the team on his back and carried them into the postseason.

SECOND BASE: DUSTIN PEDROIA, BOSTON

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All apologies to those of you that hate Pedroia, and an honorable mention to the admirable Brian Roberts, but let's not kid ourselves. Pedroia's a better player, and he had the much better year.

Pedroia isn't just some annoying "lil' sparkplug" middle infielder that slaps the ball around and plays overrated defense and "does the little things." Dude contended for a batting title, hit over 50 doubles, and came close to 20 homers. He was also near-perfect on stolen base attempts.

He is a hell of a good baseball player, and a guy anyone would love to have on their team. C'mon. Admit it.

THIRD BASE: ALEX RODRIGUEZ, NEW YORK

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The Yankees screw around all year, never get white-hot to overcome their here-and-there crappiness, and the player that gets booed is Alex Rodriguez.

See, usually I'd go, "What is wrong with you people?"

But I was giving this a good, solid think the other day, and the thing I do ignore when this topic enters my mind is that A-Rod is, well, kind of a d-bag, y'know? Slapping purses on the way to first base, announcing his free agency while baseball's focus should be on the playoffs, then wasting everyone's time by just staying in New York anyway with a sweetheart deal designed to get him a monument and some Ted Williams-style "later in life, we realized..." type of admiration from Yankee fans in the future.

So maybe booing this dork just speaks well of the taste of Yankee fans. Not everyone is meant to be liked. And by the way, this position wasn't close either. Never is with this dude around.

SHORTSTOP: DEREK JETER, NEW YORK

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Congratulations, Derek! You're still the best shortstop in the division!

Like Navarro, this is more that no one else was worth a crap than it is some spectacular season from Jeter. It's been Jeter's worst season since 1997, when he was in his second full year. It's also the first time in his career that he's missing the playoffs, so I'm sure he'd categorize this as the worst, bar none.

His batting average dip isn't the real problem -- it's power and patience. Jeter's OBP and SLG slides (.388/.452 in 2007, and .417/.483 in 2006) are very real, and should be a huge concern for the Yankees. He also still stinks in the field. When the competition is the likes of David Eckstein, Julio Lugo, Jason Bartlett and the Unholy Union of Baltimore Shortstops, though, Jeter looks like Honus Wagner.

OUTFIELD: NICK MARKAKIS, BALTIMORE

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This is no jive, no bias, and no favoritism: Nick Markakis is the best outfielder in the American League East.

He does it all, frankly. Hits for average, has fine power, gets on base like a demon all of a sudden, cannon arm, great glove. He trumps them all, though a full season of Bay or Ramirez would have beaten him, and a full season of Drew may have, too. Still, we take what we can get here in Birdland. Nick Markakis! Best outfielder in the division! Suck it!

OUTFIELD: BOBBY ABREU, NEW YORK

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OK, so Abreu has lost a couple steps and he's always been a lousy right fielder. He's still a valuable player. Like the next fella that'll make the team, the asterisk exists. With Manny or Bay in a full season or Drew not getting hurt, there's a good chance they don't make this team. They probably don't, in fact.

Injuries, man.

OUTFIELD: JOHNNY DAMON, NEW YORK

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Here we are. 2008, and Johnny Damon is making the All-AL East team. You know what? I can't take it. I can't stomach it. Terrible. The worst.

But he did have a nice season and did about all you could expect and probably then some.

DESIGNATED HITTER: AUBREY HUFF, BALTIMORE

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Aubrey Huff, man. Who'da thunk it prior to this season? Aging, fading, plus, let's be serious, an Oriole. Aging, fading Orioles don't generally put up huge seasons when no one's expecting it.

This would have been a unanimous vote for David Ortiz in the preseason, but even without his injuries I'm not sure he beats Huff out. Aubrey was really good this year, and even won over the Baltimore fans he so righteously angered in the offseason.

CLOSER: MARIANO RIVERA, NEW YORK

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Are you kidding me? This guy could probably close and close like an All-Star until he's 50 if feels like it. He shows no signs of wear and tear and no signs of slowing down. As good as Jonathan Papelbon was in 2008, he wasn't on Rivera's planet.

What does this guy eat?

RELIEF PITCHER: J.P. HOWELL, TAMPA BAY

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I thought there needed to be a position for the guys who bridge the gap between the starters and the closers, and J.P. Howell has done that better than anyone in the divison, throwing neary 100 innings and dominating. The handful of times I got to see him this year, he reminded me of B.J. Ryan except smaller -- a lefty that can flat-out smoke the hitter and get it done daily.

I'm sure someone has some qualms, so let's hear 'em.

Three a-holes going as Chuck Liddell for Halloween (which I realize is a month away) [via d.yimg.com]

Even in a year where we were "surprised" by a "competitive" Orioles team, the Birds are doing their best to remind us that this is yet another crap season from a franchise that has been embarrassing us in public in front of God and everybody for over a decade.

With their sixth straight loss, the O's are 4-15 in September, meaning very little at the end of the day, perhaps, but the familiar September swoon is nonetheless old hat. Take your Orioles Magic DVDs and toss 'em -- this team is no different than the rest.

Bad pitchers pitching badly, 30-year old minor leagues hitting a little bit, making some people think they're legitimate major leaguers for next year. You name it, the O's are doing it. Again.

The truth is that this team is nowhere near contention. Not even close. Aubrey Huff isn't going to be putting up .950 OPS numbers every year, as this year had a 150-point jump in that particular statistic. The only truly viable members of the FUTURE of this club that we have run out regularly this year are Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Jeremy Guthrie, and maybe Jim Johnson. Everyone else is old or getting there, or just not very good.

We've got Matt Wieters, sure, but even Wieters, Markakis and Jones (if Jones starts hitting more than he did this year) don't simply measure up to most teams on their own, particularly in a loaded division that is more than just Boston and New York. The fourth-place Jays are 10 games over .500, for the love of pete, and they had some troubles this year. The Yankees aren't just going to go down without a fight, either, so don't simply expect that. Boston will load up with another good team. The Rays' best players are young.

Gonna be a long road, y'all. This process will not be quick, nor will it be easy. What looked like fun earlier this year has dragged out to another forgettable, awful finish.

Carl Pavano improved to 2-0 against the O's this season and 4-1 overall, pitching five innings of solid ball before handing it over to the bullpen, a group that shut us down for the final four innings and gave the Yankees a 3-2 win in the Bronx.

The O's jumped out to a 2-0 lead, but Nick Markakis was thrown out at home in the first inning on an Aubrey Huff RBI single (scoring Roberts). The second run came on a Lou Montanez sac fly in the second, scoring Adam Jones.

The winning Yankee run came in the fifth, when Johnny Damon scored on a wild pitch. Radhames Liz actually did pretty well today, though, going 6 1/3, allowing three earned. Not a bad game at all. Could've been good enough to win. Wasn't.

Two more at Yankee Stadium, then a seven-game homestand to end it (TB, TBx2, TB, TOR, TOR, TOR). Woopty doo, Orioles fans. Goin' down the only road I've ever known!

Instead of doing a league-wide awards voting this season, I'm going to condense it down to just the O's. It'll make the awards easier to vote for and thus let you and me think a little less (which I see as a negative), but it'll also make it more personal. Being the Camden Chat MVP will mean a little more to us, I think.

We'll do all the awards -- the MVP will be named the Cal Ripken/Brooks Robinson Award, the "Cy Young" will be known as the Jim Palmer, and my vote for "Rookie of the Year" is the Gregg Olson Award. There will also be other awards, some funny, some serious, some stupid.

But how about MVP? It's an interesting race, and I think there are four strong candidates. This is more than we would have had most years.

Aubrey Huff, DH

Pros: Huff's second season in Baltimore has been a massive success, and he's served as baseball's best designated hitter this season, which is shocking. Huff has hit .316/.372/.581 with 31 homers, 102 RBI, and 44 doubles. He's been a monster in the middle of the lineup. The Orioles have not had a power threat like Huff since Eric Davis in 1998, and Davis missed 31 games that season. (Yes, the O's have had good power seasons since then, but nobody has posted a slugging percentage this high since Davis' .582 mark a decade ago.)

There's also the fact that he's sort of a feel-good story. After calling Baltimore a "horses**t town" and making no friends in the fanbase during the 2007 offseason (and also running around all willy-nilly with the likes of the deplorable Melissa Midwest), Huff has become a fan favorite. You know why? He's earned it. This is another point in favor of only judging a book by how it hits. Huff could go on XM radio this November and personally call me a d-bag, and he's OK by me.

Cons: Huff doesn't play the field very often, with 20 games at first base and 21 at third scattered among his 136 appearances. This doesn't much matter to me, but things like this matter to some people. Huff was brought to Baltimore to hit. It took him a year, but he's done his job.

There also may still be some stragglers that don't much like Huff, and I guess that's understandable. You can cheer for his bat without cheering much for him. He can't take any comments he's ever made back, but he can do his best to atone for them.

Nick Markakis, RF

Pros: Nick Markakis is the man. There was some talk around other team blogs this spring that we as Orioles fans overrated Markakis, and that he was a good but totally unspecial player. I disagreed -- I said he would get even better, that we had yet to see just how good he could be. I had my reasons for thinking this, such as the fact that he has always shown a knack for outperforming expectations.

Well, 2008 has done it again. No, Markakis isn't going to be slugging 30-40 homers a year, but he's going to be good for 40-50 doubles and a crap load of walks. He'd always shown a great eye, but this year he's really taken it to a new level, posting a .399 OBP with 87 walks thus far. A lot of this happened early in the season, when teams liberally pitched around Markakis because there was no one behind him. Huff's emergence has slowed it down some, but Markakis has also hit better as the season has gone on. A rough May (.231/.304/.442) hurts his overall numbers (.301/.399/.484, 43 doubles, 18 HR, 81 RBI).

Beyond his stick, Markakis contributes as a baserunner (just 10-for-16 stolen bases this season, but he doesn't make many mistakes) and with his excellent glove, which is legitimately Gold Glove-worthy. He's got a cannon arm, covers a lot of ground, and doesn't screw up. He's a smart, excellent ballplayer. And he's still just 24.

Cons: Markakis simply does not have Huff's numbers, and it'd be nice if he did hit more homers. Offensively, Huff has been way better than Markakis this season. Huff's 61.7 VORP trumps Nick's (41.5), and it's not even close. Other than that, not much to complain about.

Jeremy Guthrie, RH

Pros: Ahhh...GUTS! The ace. The big guy. The dude that could do it two years in a row, unlike others.

Guthrie's 10-11 record this season is a crying shame. He went 7-5 last year, and that was a crying shame, because he pitched better than that. But this year, he's actually gotten a little bit better (or a little bit luckier, or whatever). His numbers said he would slip up a bit this season, even if he stayed pretty good. Well, he's repeated those numbers, essentially, and had about the same level of success.

What's refreshing with Guthrie is that every five days, no matter the circumstances, the team has a chance to win. They have not rewarded him with the win-loss record he deserves, but he's kept us in almost every game he's pitched. That's worth a lot.

You know what the coolest thing about Guthrie is? He doesn't complain much, and he's got perhaps the most reason to do so on the entire team. He takes the ball, does his best, and win or lose, he comes back next time it's his turn and does the same. He's a pro.

Cons: The W-L record doesn't matter if you're smart enough, which all of us are. He did all he could most nights, and either the offense or the bullpen didn't or couldn't back him up. Good pitchers on bad teams often don't have good records. And sometimes good pitchers on good teams aren't that inspiring W-L wise, either (take a look at Johan Santana this year).

The biggest con, really, is he's not on the field every day. Yes, he does his job, but he does it every fifth game. Which is his job. So it's kind of a catch-22. What can you do? Nature of the beast, y'all.

Brian Roberts, 2B

Pros: In many ways, Roberts is the team's leader. He's the leadoff man, the one in charge of starting the game off right, either by getting on base or working the pitcher enough so that everyone else can get a read on him. He's the offensive firestarter, and a good one at that. He's having the second-best season of his career, and remains one of the elite second basemen in baseball.

Roberts is hitting .293/.376/.457 with 47 doubles and a 36-for-46 success rate stealing bases. He's pesky at the plate, classically so. He's more than happy to take a walk, but he can hit, and he's got gap power.

The biggest pro of Brian's season, though, has been his stunning success batting right-handed. For his career, he hits just .256/.335/.368 against left-handed pitching, numbers that are spiked by his marks this year: .321/.404/.484, numbers that soundly thrash his line against RHP (.282/.364/.445).

Cons: The bottom line is that even if you adjust for position, it's hard for Roberts to stack up to Huff. He's about the same as Markakis (Roberts' VORP is 46.0). He's a hell of a good player, and he's the type of guy that ages well. Though some question how long he'll stay in Baltimore, he'll probably be effective for another half decade, at least. He could be a strong leadoff man for another 10 years if he stays healthy.

There's still a good amount of ball to be played. Things can happen. Right now, I'd say Aubrey Huff has a healthy lead, but that's just me.

For the second time this season, Aubrey Huff won the AL Player of the week of 25-31 August. Here are his great numbers:

The Orioles' designated hitter batted .478 (11-for-23) with four doubles, two home runs and seven RBIs from Aug. 25-31. Huff also posted a .913 slugging percentage along with a .480 on-base percentage.

The crazy revived but now injured Melvin Mora was named AL Player of the Month for August. Here are his numbers:

In 24 games last month, Mora batted .418 (41-for-98) with eight home runs and a Major League-high 32 RBI. The 36-year-old infielder posted a .765 slugging percentage and a .455 on-base percentage. The Venezuela native collected 17 extra-base hits, including eight doubles. Mora notched 13 multi-hit games in August and assembled an eight-game hitting streak from August 1st-10th. The two-time A.L. All-Star enjoyed a career day on August 17th at Detroit, going 5-for-6 with two doubles, two home runs, four runs scored and six RBI as part of Baltimore's 16-8 win. Overall, Mora had five games in August in which he collected four-or-more RBI. On the season, Mora is batting .283 with 74 runs, 27 doubles, 23 home runs and 97 RBI.

Given the production of these two and the general competence of the O's offense this season (especially the second half), it's especially disheartening to see the pitching fall apart so disgustingly. Nobody had this team pegged as contenders, but with a few more decent arms they could have shocked us.

Huff nabs Player of the Week

Mora named AL Player of the Month

The Orioles are 63-70 on this off day, 18 games out of first place. In the last ten, they're the only AL East squad with a losing record, going 3-7. The rest of the division has won six of the last ten.

The Orioles are 50-45 in night games this season, and just 13-25 in day games. Good thing we don't have a Cubs schedule.

The Orioles are 20-23 in one-run games, a massive improvement on the 13-31 mark from 2007, which was by far the worst in Major League Baseball.

Jeremy Guthrie is tied for sixth in the American League in ERA (3.28). The top ten, with W-L records thrown in, looks like this:

Cliff Lee, CLE (2.43, 19-2) ... Justin Duchscherer, OAK (2.54, 10-8) ... Roy Halladay, TOR (2.69, 16-9) ... John Lackey, LAA (2.95, 11-2) ... Armando Galarraga, DET (3.20, 12-4) ... Guthrie, BAL (3.28, 10-10) ... Felix Hernandez, SEA (3.28, 8-8) ... John Danks, CWS (3.30, 10-7) ... Ervin Santana, LAA (3.41, 13-5) ... Mike Mussina, NYY (3.45, 16-7)

Looking over those records and ERAs, I think you have to really be somewhat in awe of how good Cliff Lee has been. Halladay has thrown more innings, but Lee has been so dominant that he's managed to go 19-2 on a team that is two games under .500. He's credited for nearly one-third of their wins.

The O's have scored 5.13 runs per game, good for fourth in the American League behind Texas (5.54), Boston (5.21) and Chicago (5.17). At Camden Yards, the Birds score 5.31 runs per game, and on the road, 4.96. Last year, the team scored 4.67 runs per game, ninth in the AL.

The O's have allowed 5.14 runs per game, which is second-worst in the American League, ahead of only the deplorable Rangers (a staggering 5.99). The O's team ERA is 4.88. Last year, the Birds allowed 5.36 RPG with a 5.17 ERA, so it is an improvement. Not much one of, but an improvement.

In these respects, I think the "improvement" of this year's team is to some degree a smoke-and-mirrors act. The pitching is still God awful and that desperately needs to be rectified. No matter how many runs you score, it's tough to win when you routinely give up just as many. We know this, right? Pitching has to be considered priority No. 1 as far as any potential offseason moves go. Guthrie can't do this all by himself.

Frankly, this year's O's squad -- the competitive! team -- has had one of the worst starting rotations we've seen yet. Outside of Guthrie, they are all terrible. Look at these numbers:

 

Pitcher	IP	ERA	WHIP	ERA+
Daniel Cabrera	171.2	5.24	1.55	83
Garrett Olson	108.2	6.38	1.71	69
Brian Burres	112.0	5.79	1.66	76
Radhames Liz	57.0	6.95	1.79	63
Steve Trachsel	39.2	8.39	2.02	52
Chris Waters	28.2	4.71	1.43	93
Adam Loewen	21.1	8.02	2.02	55

And yes, this means that Daniel Cabrera still sucks, and that he's just as bad as he was last season. This "useful back-end starter" thing is not really very true. He's really, really bad.

This one truly warms my heart: Nick Markakis is fourth in the American League in on-base percentage at .403. He trails Milton Bradley (.446), Joe Mauer (.410) and J.D. Drew (.408). Markakis is fourth in the league in walks (84).

Aubrey Huff is sixth in the American League in slugging percentage (.566), fifth in OPS (.932), third in doubles (40), first in total bases (286), tied for fourth in home runs (29), sixth in RBI (94), fifth in adjusted OPS+ (143), third in runs created (107), fifth in adjusted batting runs (31), fifth in batting wins (2.9), first in extra-base hits (71), seventh in offensive win percentage (.701), and has a VORP of 53.9, by far the best on the team.

In other words, Aubrey Huff is the balls.

Brian Roberts leads the league in doubles (46), is third in triples (8), tied for tenth in walks (68), fifth in stolen bases (33), and third in times on base (226).

You know who's first in times on base? Markakis, with 240.

Melvin Mora has 97 RBI, and is having his best season since 2004, which is almost entirely thanks to a hot July and an unimaginably scorching August. Let's not forget the Melvin Mora of the first half, though. He hit .232/.300/.385. He was freaking awful. Awful, awful, awful, terrible, bad. He was so bad that they should have given up on the old fart and tried strugglin' Mike Costanzo or Scott Moore or my cat or anyone. He was hideous.

But in July he hit .311/.373/.533 with five homers, and this month he's been postively Herculean, going ape bananas at .427/.463/.781 with eight home runs.

More on Melvin: in seven games against the Tigers, Mora has hit .571/.618/1.393 with six home runs and 17 RBI. In 12 games against the Red Sox, Melvin has decided to take a nap to the tune of .111/.222/.200 with two extra-base hits (a homer and a double).

Folks that say Jay Payton has done a super duper job this season live on a different planet than I do. I respect his capability to fill in in center field with AJ out and I haven't once been truly annoyed by the dude this year as I was last year, but he's getting a lot of compliments like he's been some sort of genuine positive to the team. There are a lot of fourth/fifth outfielders that could hit .256/.300/.363. He's just as bad as he was last year, but there's been a lot less of him.

I said around the All-Star break that I thought Ramon Hernandez would bounce back in the second half because he'd been incredibly unlucky in the first half. This was no grand statement or amazing guesstimate, but he's done pretty well, hitting .288/.344/.492 since the break. I'd take those numbers out of a catcher any day. Of course I'd also prefer one that wasn't as lazy as he is behind the plate. He has also regressed back to stinking in August (.253/.292/.361).

Left-handed batters are hitting .324 with seven homers against Jamie Walker. Ummm, not cool, bro. I still love Jamie Jam Walker, but he's had a terrible season.

Since coming to the Orioles, Juan Castro has hit .214/.248/.276. He's 36 years old. He's never been any good at all. And this is the guy that wins shortstop for the season. Unbelievable.

Luke Scott has been our version of Trot Nixon, and will probably have roughly the same shelf life. He really needs a lefty-mashing platoon partner (.762 OPS v. LHP is not horrible, though). In this regard, I'll give Payton a little credit: he has bopped lefties at a .551 slugging clip. All six of his homers have come against left-handed pitchers.

Lou Montanez has been fun to watch. No numbers.

This really should be the last season for Kevin Millar as an Oriole. I say that with respect for the guy, too. It's just that his OPS has dropped every season as an Oriole -- .811 in 2006, .785 in 2007, .755 this season. He's already pretty well below standard for a first baseman, and pushing him any further as a starter would probably be a really bad idea. He does get credit for making the team fun again, and giving them some much-needed personality. And he hasn't killed us as a player or anything. But any further down the ladder, and he will. He's not getting younger.

This is admittedly not the biggest thing in the world, but I'm sort of wondering when some of the general, dated thoughts about the Orioles are going to fall away and this year's team will actually be properly evaluated and commented upon by our team's commentators.

Jim Hunter yesterday said that the Orioles have great balance in the lineup, and that is actually fairly true. The O's have the fourth-best offense in the American League, a fact that should buy Terry Crowley (and "Crowley's Crushers" or whatever the F they're calling themselves) roughly another decade in uniform as our hitting coach. In fact, I figure these ringing endorsements of Meestah Crowley (bow bow bow bowww) will make him our manager after Trembley is eventually dumped on his keister, meister.

I before E, except after C!

Anyway yesterday Hunter caught my ear because he said that there's "no real slugger" in the Orioles lineup. No "Alex Rodriguez type."

First of all, how many "Alex Rodriguez" types have there been in the history of baseball, period?

And second, hello, Jimbo, my name is Aubrey Huff and I'm slugging .56freaking2 with 27 ding dongs and 37 doubles, you putz. If Aubrey Huff's 2008 is not the year of a genuine slugger, then what is? At what point does he become that slugger in the middle of the Orioles lineup?

For that matter, Luke Scott isn't quite so good (.514 SLG, 21 HR, 22 doubles), but he's done some slugging this year, too. Melvin Mora's got 20 homers (.488 SLG, a lot due to his hot streak). Markakis is slugging .496 (17 HR,  39 doubles).

The Orioles (144 HR) are fourth in the American League in jacks, behind Chicago (182), Texas (151) and Detroit (147).

"Slugging" is not the trouble with the Orioles.

Really, if this team had a league average pitching staff, some thangs might've happened this season. Instead, the hurlers make us hurl again, languishing at 13th in the league in ERA. Boy that Rick Kranitz, makin' a difference!

Just for kicks, since I looked over the catchers, here's a look at the VORP numbers for all the O's.

If you're still unfamiliar with what, exactly, VORP is, then here's a quick primer:

Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense.

Player	Pos	VORP
Brian Roberts	2B	28.5
Aubrey Huff	DH	25.5
Nick Markakis	RF	23.8
Luke Scott	LF	17.0
Adam Jones	CF	7.3
Kevin Millar	1B	4.7
Ramon Hernandez	C	1.3
Alex Cintron	SS	0.8
Jay Payton	LF/CF	-0.3
Brandon Fahey	SS	-0.4
Luis Hernandez	SS	-2.1
Guillermo Quiroz	C	-2.5
Melvin Mora	3B	-5.4
Freddie Bynum	SS	-8.4

Roberts, Huff and Markakis have unquestionably been the three keys to the team's success offensively. In 2007, these same three players posted VORP numbers of 48.6, 15.8 and 38.4, respectively. Roberts' career-best mark was 62.0 in 2005, and he's on pace to wind up somewhere between that number and what he did last year. Huff is way up over last year -- which he should be, considering he's already hit more homers than he did in all of 2007. Markakis is Markakis.

The big disappointments start with Mora, who has become a complete detriment to the team offensively. It's been a couple years since he was making a real difference, anyway, but this is a new level of crap. He was at 33.5 in 2005, but has put up totals of 8.9 and 13.4 the last two seasons. If he can rebound up to that level it'll be a minor miracle. He's been terrible.

The shortstops have been led by Cintron's nifty 0.8, which is the only positive score of the bunch. Bynum has been a disaster, and Hernandez was every bit as inept at the plate as advertised, really. This is a big step down from Miguel Tejada's disappointing 31.8 in 2007, which was hampered by injuries. PECOTA's seven-year forecast doesn't have Miggi reaching these levels of suck until 2013, but they also never updated it for his adjusted age, so maybe a couple years before that. Tejada, for the record, is currently at 17.1, which makes the trade look fine for us after the age debacle and the fact that Luke Scott is contributing.

Elsewhere, Kevin Millar continues his slow, entertaining plod toward retirement.

And the pitchers:

Player	Role	VORP
Jim Johnson	RP	21.7
Jeremy Guthrie	SP	19.9
Daniel Cabrera	SP	13.7
Lance Cormier	RP	9.0
Matt Albers	RP	7.8
Dennis Sarfate	RP	7.2
George Sherrill	CL	6.8
Randor Bierd	RP	4.8
Chad Bradford	RP	2.3
Garrett Olson	SP	1.6
Brian Burres	SP	1.4
Jamie Walker	RP	0.6
Radhames Liz	SP	0.0
Ryan Bukvich	RP	-0.8
Greg Aquino	RP	-3.7
Adam Loewen	SP/RP	-6.9
Steve Trachsel	SP	-17.2

Jim Johnson wouldn't have been in my top 15 choices to be the Orioles pitching VORP leader on July 5 (the date that this data was updated), but there he is.

Sherrill's 6.8 might seem low, but it's really sort of a testament to how non-elite George has been. He has a lot of saves because we play a lot of close games. He's done a damn fine job as the closer, about as good as you could expect. But he gives up too many big flies and his walk rate isn't exactly inspiring for a closer. There are several closers in the league that are better than Sherrill, and a whole lot of guys around the league that could do the job he's doing with similar results. He's absolutely perfect trade material, with a counting stat that inflates his actual value. I love the guy and he's been a-OK by me, but this is the sort of player that this sort of team really ought to trade.

Guthrie put up a 38.2 last year -- he's on his way to being in that area again. He's a hell of a pitcher. Cabrera might not be exciting anyone of late (save for that last start), but this has been a pretty nice bounce-back year for him all in all. Last year, his VORP was a slimy 2.2.

The bullpen contributions from Johnson, Albers, Sherrill, Sarfate and Cormier have been huge. Poor Steve Trachsel was on his way to an historically awful season before getting cut.

Probably nothing you wouldn't expect, just reaffirmations of the good, bad and Mora.

Over on our right sidebar, just under Cabrera Bowl '08 (where Z and Big Danny have lost some momentum, sadly), is Numbers Watch with Amber Theoharis. You may recall that Amber smiled really big and typed up some fantastical tall tales of scouts agreeing that it would not be weird for Ramon Hernandez to hit 25 home runs for the first time in his life, or for Kevin Millar to get back to that plateau at this stage of his career, or for Jeremy Guthrie to win 15 games on a team that struggles to score any freaking runs. It was Amber being Amber.

But so far, she and her fictional scouts aren't looking so bad.

The 25-homer club included Aubrey Huff, Nick Markakis, Ramon, Millar, and Luuuuuuke.

Huff paces the team with 17, Scott is at 14, Markickass is at 13, Kevbo has 11, and Ramon comes in with a paltry seven.

Huff would need an injury or a God awful slump to miss 25 homers at this point, and he's a career second half hitter, anyway. He might reach 25 and beyond in someone else's uniform, but them's the breaks.

I'm thinking Luuuuuke will get there, too. Markakis should be right around that neighborhood. I do not think Millar is going to make it even to 20, and Ramon never did it before and had no business doing it this year.

But still, that's looking like a probable 3-for-5.

The "15-20 dingers" patrol had Melvin Mora, Adam Jones and Brian Roberts.

They all have a shot. Mora is already at 11, and I'd go deeper into how 15-20 homers for Mora this year is still going to amount to a terrible season, and then I'd go on a rant that it was moronic to give him that extension in 2006, but we've been there, done that, and all understand it.

Jones would need 11 more to get to 15. It seems like a lot right now, being that it's July and he's only got four, but a second half power surge is hardly out of the question. He's gotten his average up -- never expect big OBP numbers out of Jones, because it's not his game. Never has been, and that's a really difficult thing to teach. But given that he looks like he has the makings of being an elite defensive center fielder and could be a guy that hits .300 consistently with power, he still looks good.

Roberts' home run totals are not really a concern of mine, but his doubles stroke is back in full effect and he's having a hell of a year.

And then comes the 15 wins for Guthrie. It's not happening.

Then comes the 10 wins for Cabrera. It could happen. It should happen. 10 wins for Cabrera doesn't really mean a whole lot. He's done it before. But again, I suppose that's going deeper than Amber intended.

10 wins for Loewen? Oh ho ho! He's closer to 10 injuries. He's closer to the lost and found box, for that matter. But this one was the real stretch because it misunderstands how wins really happen, and it places emphasis on wins to begin with.

For what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus currently has the O's projected at finishing around 77-85. I know that might seem pessimistic, but think of how far this team would have come to reach 77 wins this season. Nobody gave them a shot at doing much better than 70, and a lot of folks had them losing 100 or more. And they had every reason to think that. It was a pretty good bet.

More to the point -- and more in the spirit of Amber -- this team is damn fun to watch and instill a sense of pride in all of us that has been missing for so many years. Even the games they lose, they have a tendency to battle. There is real character on this team, guys worth rooting for.

And like any collection of fans, we have our favorites (Nick, St. Guts, Dr. Jones, Brian Bob, etc.) and the guys we don't care for a lot of the time (all shortstops in Oriole orange this year). But even the Faheys of the world have a day. Even Luis Hernandez hits a walk-off single in a dramatic comeback. Even Freddie Bynum fills in for a sick Roberts and drives in three runs.

Every dog has had their day. And Orioles Magic means something again. So as it stands right now, projections being what they are, I say Amber and her optimism are winning the day. That's a good thing.